Credit put spread analysis · · Good setup
Hypothetical credit put spread idea
AI-evaluated setup from the latest screen — for education only. Expiration Jul 30, 2026.
- Width
- $5.00
- Estimated credit
- $0.95
- Max risk
- $4.05
- Return on risk
- 23.5%
- Expiration
- Jul 30, 2026
Hypothetical AI analysis for education & entertainment — not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Disclaimer.
Earlier analyses
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Strip out the noise and what you've got is a stock that's still up 21% in two months taking a breather. The 6.95% flush looks scary, but it's just back to the 20-day moving average — the uptrend's intact. IV at 65% is sl…
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The premium math is where this gets interesting: IV is high at 65%, but it's actually slightly cheap to the stock's own realized volatility. That -7% drop yesterday looks like a healthy shakeout after a 21% two-month run…
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Risk-first take: A 7% one-day drop in a stock that's still up 21% over two months is a classic shakeout, not a trend reversal. The chart shows this is a test of the rising 50-day moving average around $62 — a logical flo…
AI analysis
Options Trader · Jun 25, 2026
The floor on this chart is the real question: after a 21% two-month run, a -7% flush tests the uptrend's resolve. Key support sits around $58, where the 50-day moving average and prior consolidation converge. IV at 62% is slightly cheap versus realized vol, offering decent premium for the defined risk.
I'd sell the July 31 $59 put and buy the $57 put for a $0. 65 credit. That's a 2-point wide spread, giving a 0.
33 credit-to-width ratio — the math pays for the risk of a breakdown. The trend is still your friend, but this is a bet on the dip finding buyers, not a deep value play. Verdict: A decent, moderately aggressive fade of the panic.