Rating
3.2 / 5
Recommendation
Hold
Credit put spread analysis · · Moderate setup
IV Rank
27
Implied volatility percentile
Trend
0.61
Long-term trend score
Safety
6/9
Quality checks passed
Drop
-5.2%
Day 2 of drop
Reversal
Hammer
Day 4
1Y Change
7.9%
Trailing 12 months
Earnings
Clear
No event in window
Earlier analyses
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Analyzing ILMN at $135.78 after a -5.16% drop. While the single-day decline creates a potential entry point for a credit put spread, several key factors advise caution, leading to a WAIT recommendation. The stock is stil…
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Analyzing ILMN at $126.74 after a sharp -5.16% single-day drop. The stock is still up 7.9% over two months, indicating the recent sell-off is a pullback within a broader uptrend (Trend: 61%). However, the Safety score is…
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Ilumina (ILMN) has seen a significant drop of 10.40% in a single day, creating an opportunity for a credit put spread. With the current stock price at $116.38, a spread can be created using the following strikes: sell at…
AI analysis
Options Trading Expert · May 3, 2026
Analyzing ILMN at $139. 37 after a -5. 16% drop.
The stock is still up 7. 9% over two months with a moderate 61% trend score, but the safety score of 6/9 is average, and IV at 27% is not particularly elevated for a high-premium capture. The hammer reversal signal on day 4 suggests potential near-term support, but it's not a confirmed reversal yet.
For a credit put spread, the key is finding a sell strike 3-7% OTM ($129. 61 to $135. 19) that offers sufficient premium relative to risk.
Given the recent drop, the volatility may not have spiked enough to provide an attractive risk/reward ratio. The 0. 25 credit-to-width floor is a stringent requirement.
With the current price, a realistic spread like selling the $135 put and buying the $132 put (a $3 width) would need an estimated credit of at least $0. 75. In the current environment, the mid-market credit for such a structure is likely closer to $0.
60-$0. 70, which barely meets or slightly fails the threshold. The setup is decent but not strong; the drop provides an entry point, but the premium isn't compelling enough for a moderately aggressive 'lean OPEN' posture.
Better to wait for either a further dip to increase premium or for IV expansion to improve the credit received.