MRNA
Moderna
Rating 3.5 / 5 AI signal Hold signal

Credit put spread analysis · · Good setup

IV Rank
100
Implied volatility percentile
Trend
0.67
Long-term trend score
Safety
6/10
Quality checks passed
Drop
-7.5%
Day 5 of drop
1Y Change
42.1%
Trailing 12 months
Earnings
Clear
No event in window

AI analysis

[dedup-flagged] The selloff looks dramatic until you realize it's just a pullback within a powerful 42% two-month uptrend. The chart shows a clear floor near $70, a level that's held multiple times. With IV at 100% and rich to realized vol, the premium is there to be harvested.

The risk is that the momentum finally breaks, but a defined-risk spread below support makes sense. I'd sell the $70 put and buy the $68 put, a $2 wide spread. That gives us a cushion of over 5% from the current price.

The expected credit of $0. 60 gives a solid 30% return on risk, paying you to bet on the trend holding. It's a decent, not perfect, setup.