Credit put spread analysis · · Good setup
Earlier analyses
-
The floor on this chart is the real question: that 8% flush to $37.42 is testing the 50-day moving average and a prior consolidation zone. IV at 61% is rich versus realized vol, so we're getting paid for the scare. But t…
-
Volatility is doing something worth noting: IV at 67% is rich versus 42% realized vol, so we're getting paid for more movement than we've seen. The 7.9% flush yesterday is testing the uptrend's resolve — it's been a stea…
-
My read starts with the trend: up 8% over two months, so this 8% drop is a healthy pullback, not a breakdown. The chart shows a clear floor around $38 where it's bounced twice before — that's our line in the sand. IV at…
-
First thing I'd check on this name: that 100% IV is screaming rich, pricing in more volatility than the 68.5% realized vol we've seen. The math says we're getting paid for risk, and the doji reversal after a 5% drop sugg…
-
[dedup-flagged] The chart tells an interesting story here: a 29% run-up over two months, now a sharp -5% drop. But the Doji reversal signal is a flicker, not a floor. IV is 100% — rich, but it's pricing in the 61% realiz…
AI analysis
Options Trader · Sep 10, 2026
[dedup-flagged] The floor on this chart is the real question: a 7. 9% drop on a Doji reversal day suggests the selloff might be finding a temporary floor. The trend is still up 8% over two months, but yesterday's flush matters.
IV is rich at 100%, which pays us, but it's 2. 6x realized vol — that's a big cushion. Key support sits around $36, where it bounced in late July.
I'd sell the $35 put and buy the $33. 50 for a $1. 50-wide spread, targeting a conservative $0.
45 credit. That's a 30% credit-to-width ratio, which justifies the risk of a breakdown below that July low. The structure is defined, and the premium is fair for the volatility on offer.