UPS
United Parcel Service
Rating 3.7 / 5 Recommendation Open trade

Credit put spread analysis · · Good setup

IV Rank
43
Implied volatility percentile
Trend
0.78
Long-term trend score
Safety
8/9
Quality checks passed
Drop
-10.5%
Day 2 of drop
1Y Change
10.1%
Trailing 12 months
Earnings
Clear
No event in window

AI analysis

The stock's sharp 10. 47% drop creates a potential entry point for a credit put spread, as the elevated IV of 43% boosts option premiums. The stock is still up 10.

1% over two months, indicating the long-term trend remains positive despite the single-day selloff. The high Safety score of 8/9 is a positive fundamental buffer. However, the Trend score of 78% suggests momentum has weakened, and the absence of a reversal signal means the decline could continue in the near term, increasing assignment risk.

The moderately aggressive temperament leans OPEN, but the lack of a confirmed bottom tempers the rating. A spread defined by the rules provides a controlled risk profile. The selected strikes place the short put 5% out-of-the-money, which is a reasonable distance to collect premium while managing risk.

The $3 spread width and estimated $0. 95 credit yield a credit-to-width ratio of approximately 0. 32, which exceeds the 0.

25 hard floor and offers a favorable risk/reward. Maximum risk is $205 per spread ($300 width - $95 credit). The position profits if the stock stays above $99.

05 at expiration. Given the volatility and recent price action, this is a decent, but not perfect, setup that aligns with a willingness to take moderate risk for a defined return.

Recommended credit put spread

AI-suggested setup based on the latest screen. Expiration Jun 11, 2026.

Sell
$95.00
Short put (collects premium)
Buy
$92.00
Long put (caps risk)
Width
$3.00
Estimated credit
$0.50
Max risk
$2.50
Return on risk
20.0%
Expiration
Jun 11, 2026

For entertainment purposes only. Not a recommendation to trade. Disclaimer.

Earlier analyses

  1. 4.5/5 Open trade

    The recent 5.82% drop in UPS presents a strong opportunity for a credit put spread. With the current stock price at $104.07, we can create a spread with the following parameters: sellStrike at $95 (9.6% below current pri…