Credit put spread analysis · · Good setup
Recommended credit put spread
AI-suggested setup based on the latest screen. Expiration Jun 25, 2026.
- Width
- $3.00
- Estimated credit
- $1.36
- Max risk
- $1.64
- Return on risk
- 82.9%
- Expiration
- Jun 25, 2026
For entertainment purposes only. Not a recommendation to trade. Disclaimer.
Earlier analyses
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Analyzing BABA after a sharp -6.04% drop to $135.64. The stock is still up 12.4% over two months, indicating the recent sell-off is a pullback within a broader uptrend, not a structural breakdown. The moderately aggressi…
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BABA presents a mixed bag. The stock is down sharply (-6.04%) on the day, which increases put premiums and creates a potential entry point for a credit spread. However, the context is concerning. The stock is still up 12…
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While BABA's -6.04% drop creates a volatility spike, the overall setup is weak for a credit put spread. The stock is still up 12.4% over two months, indicating this is a pullback within an uptrend, not a capitulation. Th…
AI analysis
Options Trading Expert · May 19, 2026
BABA presents a mixed opportunity. The stock dropped -6. 04% yesterday, creating a potential entry point for a put spread, but the context is nuanced.
The stock is still up 12. 4% over two months, indicating underlying strength, and the trend score is 55% (neutral to slightly bullish). However, the Safety score is only 6/9, suggesting moderate risk, and the IV of 38% provides decent premium but is not exceptionally high for a volatile name like BABA.
There is no reversal signal, meaning the drop could be a one-off event or part of a deeper correction. For a moderately aggressive trader, this is a reasonable, but not perfect, setup. The goal is to sell a put at a strike where we believe the stock will not fall, collecting credit while defining risk with a lower long put.
Given the current price of $134. 47, a sell strike around 5% OTM (~$128) is appropriate. A $3 wide spread (buy at $125) would provide a conservative estimated credit of ~$0.
90, yielding a credit/width ratio of 0. 30, which meets the hard floor of 0. 25.
This structure offers a 1:2. 33 risk/reward (risk $2. 10 to make $0.
90), which is acceptable for a moderate risk-taker. The expiration of 2026-06-26 provides 37 days, fitting the 35-40 day requirement. The primary concerns are the moderate safety score and the lack of a clear reversal signal; we are betting that yesterday's drop was an overreaction.
Given the lean OPEN temperament, this meets the criteria for a decent setup with a defined, moderate risk.