BABA
Alibaba Group
Rating 3.7 / 5 Recommendation Open trade

Credit put spread analysis · · Good setup

IV Rank
38
Implied volatility percentile
Trend
0.55
Long-term trend score
Safety
6/9
Quality checks passed
Drop
-6.0%
Day 2 of drop
1Y Change
12.4%
Trailing 12 months
Earnings
Clear
No event in window

AI analysis

BABA presents a mixed opportunity. The stock dropped -6. 04% yesterday, creating a potential entry point for a put spread, but the context is nuanced.

The stock is still up 12. 4% over two months, indicating underlying strength, and the trend score is 55% (neutral to slightly bullish). However, the Safety score is only 6/9, suggesting moderate risk, and the IV of 38% provides decent premium but is not exceptionally high for a volatile name like BABA.

There is no reversal signal, meaning the drop could be a one-off event or part of a deeper correction. For a moderately aggressive trader, this is a reasonable, but not perfect, setup. The goal is to sell a put at a strike where we believe the stock will not fall, collecting credit while defining risk with a lower long put.

Given the current price of $134. 47, a sell strike around 5% OTM (~$128) is appropriate. A $3 wide spread (buy at $125) would provide a conservative estimated credit of ~$0.

90, yielding a credit/width ratio of 0. 30, which meets the hard floor of 0. 25.

This structure offers a 1:2. 33 risk/reward (risk $2. 10 to make $0.

90), which is acceptable for a moderate risk-taker. The expiration of 2026-06-26 provides 37 days, fitting the 35-40 day requirement. The primary concerns are the moderate safety score and the lack of a clear reversal signal; we are betting that yesterday's drop was an overreaction.

Given the lean OPEN temperament, this meets the criteria for a decent setup with a defined, moderate risk.

Recommended credit put spread

AI-suggested setup based on the latest screen. Expiration Jun 25, 2026.

Sell
$128.00
Short put (collects premium)
Buy
$125.00
Long put (caps risk)
Width
$3.00
Estimated credit
$1.36
Max risk
$1.64
Return on risk
82.9%
Expiration
Jun 25, 2026

For entertainment purposes only. Not a recommendation to trade. Disclaimer.

Earlier analyses

  1. 3.2/5 Hold

    Analyzing BABA after a sharp -6.04% drop to $135.64. The stock is still up 12.4% over two months, indicating the recent sell-off is a pullback within a broader uptrend, not a structural breakdown. The moderately aggressi…

  2. 3.2/5 Hold

    BABA presents a mixed bag. The stock is down sharply (-6.04%) on the day, which increases put premiums and creates a potential entry point for a credit spread. However, the context is concerning. The stock is still up 12…

  3. 2.5/5 Pass

    While BABA's -6.04% drop creates a volatility spike, the overall setup is weak for a credit put spread. The stock is still up 12.4% over two months, indicating this is a pullback within an uptrend, not a capitulation. Th…