Credit put spread analysis · · Moderate setup
Earlier analyses
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Before you touch this spread, realize IV is 77% but realized vol is even higher at 77% — selling premium here is structurally cheap, a negative-EV game. The chart shows a stock up 49% in two months now correcting; yester…
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The floor on this chart is the real question: after an 18% two-month run, a -5.8% drop is just noise, not a true test of support. IV at 85% looks juicy, but it's cheap relative to realized vol — selling premium here is s…
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The selloff looks dramatic until you see it's just a pullback within a strong two-month uptrend. IV at 81% is high but actually slightly cheap versus realized vol, so we're getting paid for the noise. Key support sits ar…
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The IV picture matters here: implied volatility at 78% is high, but it's actually cheap relative to the 68.6% realized vol. Selling premium here is structurally negative-EV — the math doesn't care about the hammer candle…
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Support levels are the headline: that hammer reversal at $25.50 needs to hold. The stock's up 18% in two months, so this -7.68% drop is a healthy pullback, not a breakdown. The problem is the math: IV at 74% looks juicy,…
AI analysis
Options Trader · Jun 29, 2026
Here's the risk/reward in plain English: a 5. 8% drop on a high-beta name like DKNG grabs attention, but the math is a trap. IV at 75% looks juicy, but it's actually cheap relative to the 73% realized vol — selling premium here is structurally negative-EV.
The chart shows a stock up 18% in two months, now breaking its uptrend; yesterday's flush didn't find a clear floor. No reversal signal means we're catching a falling knife. To get a decent credit on a put spread, you'd have to sell a strike so close to the money it's just a directional bet on a bounce, and the risk/reward gets ugly fast.
I'm not paying for that lottery ticket.