Credit put spread analysis · · Good setup
Earlier analyses
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[dedup-flagged] Support levels are the headline: that -9.6% plunge broke the 50-day and is now testing the 200-day near $71. The chart is screaming for a pause, not a bounce. IV at 92% is high, but realized vol is 47% —…
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The selloff looks dramatic until you see it's still above the $70 level that's held as support for the last two months — the chart says this is a shakeout, not a breakdown. IV is screaming at 100%, but it's actually slig…
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First thing I'd check on this name: that -9.6% drop is a gut punch, but it's still above the 200-day moving average and the uptrend from May. The 100% IV is screaming, but it's actually slightly cheap versus realized vol…
AI analysis
Options Trader · Jul 12, 2026
[dedup-flagged] Here's the risk/reward in plain English: A 9. 6% single-day drop on a Doji reversal day suggests panic selling may be exhausting itself, but the floor isn't confirmed. IV at 100% is rich, pricing in more chaos than the 45.
6% realized vol justifies — that's our edge. The stock is still up 10% over two months, so this is a pullback within a trend. Key support sits around $70, where it's bounced before.
I'd sell the $70 put and buy the $68 for protection, a $2 wide spread. We're targeting a conservative $0. 60 credit, giving us a 30% return on risk, which pays for the volatility.
Max loss is contained if it breaks down further. It's a decent, defined-risk bet that the selloff was overdone.