Credit put spread analysis · · Good setup
Hypothetical credit put spread idea
AI-evaluated setup from the latest screen — for education only. Expiration Aug 13, 2026.
- Width
- $1.00
- Estimated credit
- $0.00
- Max risk
- $1.00
- Return on risk
- 0.0%
- Expiration
- Aug 13, 2026
Hypothetical AI analysis for education & entertainment — not financial advice or a recommendation to trade. Disclaimer.
Trade history on HPE
Automated positions disclosed on this ticker — what was traded, when, and how it ended. Not a solicitation to trade.
| Opened | Strikes (S/B) | Expiration | Credit | P/L | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jun 7, 2026 | $41.00/$40.00 | Jul 16, 2026 | $0.24 | -$0.16 | Loss · reconciled_broker_close |
Earlier analyses
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The Doji reversal at the 50-day moving average near $43 is the story — a 6% flush into a logical floor after a parabolic 60% run. IV is rich at 71%, pricing in more chaos than the 50% realized vol we've seen, so we're ge…
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The IV picture matters here: at 70% it's rich and pricing in more movement than the 58% realized vol, so we're getting paid for the risk. But the chart is the problem — this thing is up 61% in two months and just broke a…
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The IV picture matters here: at 69%, it's rich versus realized vol, so we're getting paid for the recent turbulence. However, a 61% two-month rally on a stock with a 4/10 safety score screams 'overextended.' The chart sh…
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Here's the risk/reward in plain English: The stock is up 59% in two months, so a 6.4% pullback is just noise in a strong uptrend. The chart shows a hammer reversal yesterday, suggesting the dip found buyers at a key prio…
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Before you touch this spread, know the math is fighting you. IV at 69% looks juicy, but it's cheap relative to the 83% realized vol — selling premium here is structurally negative-EV. The chart shows a hammer reversal, b…
AI analysis
Options Trader · Jul 7, 2026
The IV picture matters here: at 80% it's rich versus realized vol, so we're getting paid for the scare. The stock is up 61% in two months, so this -6% flush is a healthy pullback, not a breakdown. Key support sits around $42.
50, where it's bounced before. I'm structuring a defined-risk put spread to sell that fear. Sell the $42 put, buy the $40 put for a $2 wide spread.
Target a $0. 65 credit, giving us a 0. 33 credit-to-width ratio.
The defined max loss is small, and the math works if the uptrend merely pauses. One-line verdict: A decent, disciplined way to collect on elevated IV in a strong trend.