XOM
ExxonMobil
Rating 4.5 / 5 Recommendation Open trade

Credit put spread analysis · · Strong setup

IV Rank
100
Implied volatility percentile
Trend
0.53
Long-term trend score
Safety
6/9
Quality checks passed
Drop
-5.2%
Day 2 of drop
1Y Change
9.1%
Trailing 12 months
Earnings
Clear
No event in window

AI analysis

The -5.23% drop in XOM presents a strong opportunity for a credit put spread. The stock is up 9.1% over two months, indicating a potential pullback. The Trend is 53%, Safety is 6/9, and IV is at 100%, further supporting this assumption.

Looking at the strike prices, we can target a sellStrike around 5-15% below the current price of $163.91. A reasonable sellStrike would be $143.72 (12% below current price), and we'll set the buyStrike at 5-10% lower, around $131.22 ($143.72 - $12.50). This results in a spread width of $12.50 (7.6% of the current price).

Given these strikes, we can expect a realistic credit of around $4.00 - $4.50. This represents a solid risk/reward ratio with a maximum potential loss of $7.50 ($143.72 - $131.22 - $4.00) and a maximum potential gain of $4.00 ($4.00 credit).

Considering the positive factors, I recommend opening a credit put spread with the mentioned strikes and an expiration date within the valid range (e.g., 2026-05-12).

Recommended credit put spread

AI-suggested setup based on the latest screen. Expiration May 14, 2026.

Sell
$144.00
Short put (collects premium)
Buy
$131.00
Long put (caps risk)
Width
$13.00
Estimated credit
$4.25
Max risk
$8.75
Return on risk
48.6%
Expiration
May 14, 2026

For entertainment purposes only. Not a recommendation to trade. Disclaimer.

Earlier analyses

  1. 4.3/5 Open trade

    The recent 5.23% drop in XOM presents a strong opportunity for a credit put spread. With a current stock price of $160.78, we can sell a put at a strike price around 5-15% below this, and buy a put at a lower strike pric…