Rating
3.4 / 5
Recommendation
Hold
Credit put spread analysis · · Moderate setup
IV Rank
61
Implied volatility percentile
Trend
0.27
Long-term trend score
Safety
5/9
Quality checks passed
Drop
-12.1%
Day 5 of drop
1Y Change
6.3%
Trailing 12 months
Earnings
Clear
No event in window
AI analysis
Options Trader · Jun 3, 2026
Risk-first take: a 12% single-day drop on a stock like this is a volatility event, not necessarily a value event. The chart shows a violent break of every meaningful support level down to the 200-day moving average, which it's currently testing. That's the only thing keeping it off the floor—if that fails, there's air down to $380.
IV at 58% is juicy, but it's a trap if you sell too close. The math says the expected move over the next 37 days is roughly ±$65, so selling a put 5% OTM at $400 only gives you a $15 buffer before you're in the meat of the move. For a defined-risk spread, the premium needs to compensate for that.
A $400/$395 put spread, $5 wide, might fetch around $1. 25. That's a 25% credit-to-width ratio right at our hard floor, which means the market is pricing this near the edge of fair value—you're not getting paid for the tail risk of another leg down.
Structurally, it's clean, but the risk/reward is borderline because the chart is broken and the sector context is weak. You're effectively betting the 200-day holds on the first test after a massive gap. I'd want a wider buffer or a better price for that bet.
WAIT for either a bounce to resell into, or for IV to pump further on a second wave of selling to get a better premium for the same risk. Patience here lets the chart show its hand.