Credit put spread analysis · · Moderate setup
Earlier analyses
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Risk-first take: The 9.9% drop is a violent flush, but it's a pullback within a powerful 61% two-month uptrend. The hammer reversal signal at the 20-day moving average suggests buyers are stepping in. IV at 61% is high b…
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Price action on this drop: a 9.9% plunge after a parabolic 61% run-up screams profit-taking, not a new floor. The chart is a mess — no reversal signal, and that 111% realized volatility means the stock is still swinging…
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The IV/RV ratio at 0.82 screams 'cheap' — selling premium here is structurally negative-EV. The stock is up 61% in two months and just got whacked 10% on 113% realized vol, which means yesterday's drop is more noise than…
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The 79% uptrend score is a red flag — this is a momentum rocket that just cooled 6% and still sits 88% above its lows. IV at 66% is screaming, but that premium is compensation for volatility, not a gift. Chart-wise, ther…
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Risk-first take: A 117% run-up over two months followed by an 18% single-day collapse is a classic blow-off top, not a dip. The chart shows no floor yet, and IV at 100% is screaming panic, not opportunity. The premium is…
AI analysis
Options Trader · Jun 25, 2026
Strip out the noise and what you've got is a stock that's still up 61% in two months taking a breather. The hammer candle suggests a floor, but the real story is the volatility mismatch: IV at 61% looks high, but realized vol is 109%. Selling premium here is cheap — you're getting paid less than the actual risk.
The chart shows support near $45, but with IV/RV at 0. 84, the math is structurally negative-EV. I'd wait for either a clearer technical hold above $45 or for IV to spike relative to realized vol to make the premium worth the defined risk.
A credit put spread now is just picking up pennies in front of a steamroller that's still moving.