CF
CF Industries
Rating 4.3 / 5 Recommendation Open trade

Credit put spread analysis · · Good setup

IV Rank
61
Implied volatility percentile
Trend
0.61
Long-term trend score
Safety
7/9
Quality checks passed
Drop
-9.7%
Day 2 of drop
1Y Change
22.9%
Trailing 12 months
Earnings
Clear
No event in window

AI analysis

The stock's 9.65% drop offers a decent credit put spread opportunity. Current price is $122.46, and it's up 22.9% over 2 months with a trend score of 61% and safety score of 7/9. Volatility is at 61%. Let's capitalize on this correction with a credit put spread.

Sell Strike: Choose a sell strike 5-15% below the current price. I recommend $112.00. This puts the sell strike 9% below the current price, within the acceptable range.

Buy Strike: The buy strike should be 5-10% below the sell strike. I recommend $106.00. This puts the buy strike 5.3% below the sell strike and 13.4% below the current price.

Spread Width: The spread width is $6.00, which is within the ideal $1-$5 range.

Estimated Credit: Be conservative on the credit estimation. Given the stock's current price, price drop, and volatility, I'd estimate $1.60 as a reasonably attainable credit.

Expiration: The earliest date within the valid expiration range (2026-05-27 to 2026-06-01) is 2026-05-29. This leaves 37 days to expiration.

Risk/Reward Ratio: The credit-to-width ratio is 0.26, which meets the 0.25 threshold.

Overall, given the stock's recent trend and price drop, this is a suitable opportunity to open a credit put spread with a rating of 4.3.

Recommended credit put spread

AI-suggested setup based on the latest screen. Expiration May 28, 2026.

Sell
$112.00
Short put (collects premium)
Buy
$106.00
Long put (caps risk)
Width
$6.00
Estimated credit
$1.60
Max risk
$4.40
Return on risk
36.4%
Expiration
May 28, 2026

For entertainment purposes only. Not a recommendation to trade. Disclaimer.

Earlier analyses

  1. 4.2/5 Hold

    The stock has dropped over 5% recently, indicating a potential buying opportunity. However, we should wait for a reversal signal before entering a credit put spread. The data suggests the stock is still trending upwards…

  2. 4.2/5 Hold

    The stock has seen a significant drop of 5.70% recently, making it an attractive opportunity for a credit put spread. With the stock currently at $121.68, we can target a sell strike around 10% lower, letting us sell the…

  3. 4.5/5 Open trade

    This -5.64% drop in CF presents a strong opportunity for a credit put spread. The stock is up 26.6% over the past two months, indicating a solid uptrend and bullish sentiment. However, the Safety score of 4/9 suggests so…