Credit put spread analysis · · Avoid
Earlier analyses
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Credit here has to justify the gap risk — and with IV at 100%, it does. The stock is up 26% over two months, so this 7% drop is a healthy pullback within a trend, not a breakdown. Key support sits around $12.50, where it…
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First thing I'd check on this name: that hammer reversal signal is trying to call a bottom after a 7% drop. But MARA is a crypto proxy trading at $12.45 with 73% IV — the premium is rich, but the math is a trap. The char…
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If you're selling puts here, you're betting yesterday's -7% flush is a knee-jerk shakeout, not a trend change. The chart shows a clear uptrend over two months, and the stock is still 10% higher than May lows—this looks l…
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The premium math is where this gets interesting: IV at 68% is rich, but realized vol is 86%, so it's barely covering the stock's actual chaos. The chart shows a -9% drop, but it's still up 10% over two months, suggesting…
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Here's the risk/reward in plain English: a 5% drop on a 53% IV stock that's still up 27% in two months is a volatility gift, but the chart is a falling knife. That 'Bullish Engulfing' signal is trying to call a floor, bu…
AI analysis
Options Trader · Jul 9, 2026
[dedup-flagged] The selloff looks dramatic until you see the stock is still up 26% over two months and holding above its 200-day moving average. This is a crypto proxy, so a 7% flush on a quiet day is just noise. IV at 100% is rich, but it's covering realized vol, so the premium is fair.
The chart shows a clear support zone around $11. 50-$12. 00 where it's bounced before.
I'd sell the $11. 50 put and buy the $10. 50 for a $1 wide spread, targeting about $0.
30 credit. That's a 30% credit-to-width ratio, paying you to defend a known floor. Max loss is contained, and the math works if you believe the uptrend isn't broken.
Verdict: decent odds for a defined-risk bet.