Credit put spread analysis · · Moderate setup
Earlier analyses
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The chart tells an interesting story here: a 6% drop on a day the market was healthy, but this stock is still up 28% in two months. That's a parabolic move begging for a deeper mean reversion. IV at 22% is cheap compared…
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Before you touch this spread, the chart is a problem. A 6% drop on 72% realized vol is just Tuesday for RUN; this isn't a floor, it's a trampoline. The IV at 37% is rich versus history, but it's barely covering the actua…
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Support levels are the headline: a 10% flush after a 31% run-up needs to find a floor. The chart shows no reversal signal yet, and with Safety at a 6, this isn't a high-conviction bounce. IV at 55% offers decent premium,…
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The selloff looks dramatic until you realize it's just a pullback within a strong 2-month uptrend. The chart shows no reversal signal, and the stock is likely just digesting gains. However, the 20% IV is too low to pay f…
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What jumps off the page: a 10% flush on a low-priced, volatile stock that's still up 31% in two months. The chart shows no floor yet — that's a falling knife, not a bounce. IV at 22% isn't screaming 'panic premium' eithe…
AI analysis
Options Trader · Jun 14, 2026
Risk-first take: This is a momentum stock that just got punched. Up 29% in two months, then a -5. 5% flush on 72% realized vol screams 'unstable floor.'
IV at 22% is cheap relative to that realized movement, but that's not a gift—it's a warning the options market isn't pricing in the true chaos. The chart shows no reversal signal; we're fishing for a bottom without a net. A credit put spread here would be selling into a high-velocity decline with minimal premium to buffer.
The math says you're not getting paid for the whipsaw risk. Wait for the price action to stabilize and show a clear support level before even considering selling puts.