ADI
Analog Devices
Rating 2.5 / 5 Recommendation Hold

Credit put spread analysis · · Moderate setup

IV Rank
100
Implied volatility percentile
Trend
0.48
Long-term trend score
Safety
4/9
Quality checks passed
Drop
-6.4%
Day 5 of drop
1Y Change
18.4%
Trailing 12 months
Earnings
Clear
No event in window

AI analysis

Support levels are the headline: ADI's chart shows a sharp, ugly break from its uptrend, slicing through what should have been a floor around $420. The 6% drop is a momentum event, not a controlled pullback, and it's happening in a sector where semiconductors are getting whacked. With IV at 100%, the premium looks juicy, but that's the market screaming 'panic'—you're being paid for volatility, not stability.

The math here is tricky: a 5% OTM put at $380 would have a delta around 0. 30, offering decent credit, but the risk is that this selloff hasn't found a bottom. The 'Safety' score of 4/9 is a flashing warning light.

Structurally, you could build a $380/$375 spread for maybe $1. 50 credit, giving you a 0. 30 credit-to-width ratio, which passes the floor.

But the risk-first view dominates: you're selling puts into a falling knife with no reversal signal. The patient teacher would say this is a textbook 'WAIT' scenario—let the volatility settle and see if price can reclaim a level like $410 to prove the bleeding has stopped. The quant would note the expected move is enormous right now, and the odds of that short strike getting tagged are higher than the premium justifies.

My own money stays in the pocket.