Credit put spread analysis · · Moderate setup
Earlier analyses
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Strip out the noise and what you've got is a stock that's still up 7.6% over two months despite yesterday's plunge. The chart shows no reversal signal, meaning this could just be a shakeout within a larger uptrend, not a…
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What jumps off the page: a 7% flush on no news, but it's just a dip back to the $45 support zone that's held for two months. The IV at 97% is screaming, but that's the problem—it's pricing in panic, not a rational premiu…
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The premium math is where this gets interesting: a 96% IV screams panic, but the chart shows a stock that's still up 7.6% over two months and just gave back a week's gains. This isn't a true breakdown; it's a flush. The…
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My read starts with the trend: up 7.6% over two months, but that 7.22% single-day haircut yesterday is a violent rejection of that momentum. The chart obsessive in me sees a stock that just broke a key support level it h…
AI analysis
Options Trader · Sep 7, 2026
Trading this name means confronting a chart that's still digesting a 22% two-month rally and a 5% flush. The trend is strong, but yesterday's drop is testing the first real support since July. IV at 53% looks high, but it's cheap relative to the 58% realized vol—selling premium here is structurally negative-EV.
The math doesn't care about the trend; it says you're underpaid for the risk. For a spread, you'd need a sell strike around $61-$62, but the credit-to-width ratio would be pathetic given the IV/RV mismatch. Wait for either a clearer technical floor to form or for realized vol to cool off and make IV relatively expensive again.
Weak setup, better opportunities exist.