TXN
Texas Instruments
Rating 2.5 / 5 AI signal Pass signal

Credit put spread analysis · · Moderate setup

AI analysis

The chart tells an interesting story here: a blistering 41% rally over two months, then a sharp -6. 65% single-day drop. That's a classic 'profit-taking flush' pattern, but the problem is the floor.

With the stock still up so much, the nearest meaningful support is miles below, maybe back near $250 from the early-May consolidation. Selling a put 5% OTM at ~$271 doesn't feel like enough cushion when the trend is this extended and the IV is screaming at 84%. That high IV is paying you to take risk, but the math is tricky—the expected move over the next 35 days is enormous, roughly ±$40.

You'd need to sell a put around $245 to get a comfortable buffer, but then the premium dries up because you're so far out of the money. Structurally, a $5-wide spread with a 0. 30 credit-to-width ratio is possible, but you're fighting the momentum decay from that parabolic move.

The blunt truth: this is a high-volatility name that just got smacked, and catching a falling knife after a 40% run is a great way to fund someone else's vacation. Better to let the volatility settle and see if price can establish a base. For now, the risk/reward is skewed against the seller.